How To Break Anything

Innovation + experience-minded design strategy. The pieces of a working model for understanding culture + change in an increasingly complex world.

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      14 Jan 2011

      On zodiac signs, why creating meaning is beautiful, and implications for brands

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      I'll start with the below from CNN's article "No Your Zodiac Sign Hasn't Changed":

      Tattoo parlor owners must be salivating. An assertion in a Minneapolis Star Tribune article that our understanding of the zodiac is off by about a month - and that therefore people have been identifying themselves with the wrong sign - caught fire on the internet Thursday, and many folks are in an absolute panic on social media. 

      "If my zodiac symbol has been changed to a Libra, what am I supposed to do with my Scorpio tattoo?!?!," read one tweet Thursday.

      Some vowed to get their tats removed. Others groaned about losing the sign with which they’ve identified themselves for years. The zodiac and related terms - including Ophiuchus, said to be a 13th and neglected sign - were trending Twitter topics much of Thursday

      But before astrology fans scrape the ink from their arms because they think they're now a Virgo instead of a Libra, they should consider this: If they adhered to the tropical zodiac - which, if they're a Westerner, they probably did – absolutely nothing has changed for them.

      That's worth rephrasing: If you considered yourself a Cancer under the tropical zodiac last week, you're still a Cancer under the same zodiac this week.

      That's because the tropical zodiac – which is fixed to seasons, and which Western astrology adheres to – differs from the sidereal zodiac – which is fixed to constellations and is followed more in the East, and is the type of zodiac to which the Star Tribune article ultimately refers.

      Two zodiacs. That's nothing new.

      "This story is born periodically as if someone has discovered some truth. It's not news," said Jeff Jawer, astrologer with Tarot.com.

      The hubbub started with Sunday's Star Tribune article, which said the following: "The ancient Babylonians based zodiac signs on the constellation the sun was 'in' on the day a person was born. During the ensuing millenniums, the moon’s gravitational pull has made the Earth 'wobble' around its axis, creating about a one-month bump in the stars' alignment."

      "When [astrologers] say that the sun is in Pisces, it’s really not in Pisces," Parke Kunkle, a board member of the Minnesota Planetarium Society, told the Star Tribune.

      "Indeed," the article continued, "most horoscope readers who consider themselves Pisces are actually Aquarians." The article also asserts Scorpio's window lasts only seven days, and that a 13th constellation, Ophiuchus, used to be counted between Scorpio and Sagittarius but was discarded by the Babylonians because they wanted 12 signs per year.

      True enough, Jawer says, the sun doesn't align with constellations at the same time of year that it did millennia ago. But that’s irrelevant for the tropical zodiac, codified for Western astrology by Ptolemy in the second century, he says.

      In the tropical zodiac, the start of Aries is fixed to one equinox, and Libra the other.

      "When we look at the astrology used in the Western world, the seasonally based astrology has not changed, was never oriented to the constellations, and stands as … has been stated for two millenniums," Jawer said.

      People who put stock in astrology can ask whether they should adhere to the tropical zodiac or the sidereal zodiac. Jawer argues for the tropical.

      "Astrology is geocentric. It relates life on Earth to the Earth’s environment, and seasons are the most dramatic effect, which is why we use the tropical zodiac," he said.

      As someone who studies how people assign/define value and identity [read: arbitrarily], I couldn't have asked for more interesting news. This, along with "make a wish on 11:11 of 11/11/11" make up a couple of examples of why I tend to say "meaning is arbitrary, but creating meaning is beautiful." 

      The idea is that things like identifying with zodiac signs or religious beliefs - or any kinds of beliefs for that matter - are no less meaningful because their foundations "don't exist" (any bit of study on the physics of space and time will tend to get you thinking that they don't, might I suggest Dan Falk's "In Search of Time: The History, Physics and Philosophy of Time"); it's precisely that we have the ability to infuse these things with meaning that I find to be a compellingly beautiful part of what it means to be human.

      I'm particularly fond of this E. D. Klemke reference at the end of Steve Stewart-William (of Darwin, God, and the Meaning of Life)'s description of historical vs teleological vs evolutionary approaches to meaning (see: Psychology Today: "The Meaning Of Life Revealed!"):

      An objective meaning - that is, one which is inherent within the universe or dependent upon external agencies - would, frankly, leave me cold. It would not be mine... I, for one, am glad that the universe has no meaning, for thereby is man all the more glorious. I willingly accept the fact that external meaning is non-existent... for this leaves me free to forge my own meaning.

      I think it's important for me to explain why I say "their foundations 'don't exist'" up there in quotes, so bear with me as I do so through a couple of lateral jumps. The first one starts with this witty Wolfram Alpha search I ran into:
      Wolfram_alpha_on_trees_forests

      The second jump is about data in the information age. There's a lot of conversation about how we live in a world where data is everywhere, and you're starting to see remarkable numbers about just how much data is being captured ("more data created every 2 days than that created from the dawn of civilization to 2003!"). To me these numbers aren't actually remarkable. This data has always "existed," we just never had a way to observe it in any way that makes sense to us. (see: Why more data "exists" now than before)

      That is to say that snapping my fingers creates the data that we can capture with audio recognition systems, but that data has always been generated ever since humans first started snapping their fingers - we just haven't always had audio recognition systems. I'll point to Bruce Sterling's take on it from Shaping Things (pdf), because I particularly like his explanation of why Adam Smith's Invisible Hand was "invisible.":

      You might see where I'm going with this, with the "tree falls in a forest" thing. The typical philosophical argument is "well is it more important that the air is vibrating or is it more important that there are people to hear it?" That seems to be the wrong question to me. What matters is not the difference between vibration in the air (data) and having something available to interpret that data (ears), what matters is that data only means something to us in certain contexts.

      In this case, we call that context "sound"; you could look at it like this: until the first ear ran into the first vibration of air, we had nothing which to call "sound." So in the case of the snapping finger: until we had computers/etc we had nothing which to call "data."

      But of course just because humans haven't yet created something that allows them to accurately perceive the underlying phenomena of the world, doesn't mean that they don't exist. Hence the quotes around "don't exist" that are now way up there in the above. The reality and physics of time/space exists no matter how humans define it, and as the above article makes clear, humans have been defining it and redefining it for ages as we develop better tools for interpretation to overcome our natural limitations for observing the world (our sensory organs are only so good). So the quotes are to indicate that these things exist on a human level, not necessarily on a metaphysical "reality" level.

      But again, that makes them no less meaningful - our ability to ascribe meaning to them is indeed beautiful. 
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      27 Dec 2010

      The beginnings of a rough thesis on limitation/value/meaning/evolution/complexity

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      My mother wrote me an email on Christmas, and since it's been awhile since talking about I've been working on I decided to explain, captured below:

      Hmmm what about myself. Well, I'm working on this lofty thesis of how people come to define 'value.' The direction I'm taking begins with an understanding of fundamental human limitations, and using those to help illuminate why one thing might be more valuable [in some cases] than another thing.

      So an easy example is: why are data visualizations suddenly so popular? Well, we now have lots and lots of data available thanks to people sharing information of all sorts online - it makes sense that it's more valuable to us as charts as opposed to numbers, because 25% of our brain is occipital lobe dealing specifically with vison, and significantly less of our brain is devoted to dealing with more abstract things like numbers. 

      (That said, I like this one project I ran into recently, a team a MIT that made a prototype machine that takes in weather data from the internet, and depending on the change in temperature from the day before, mixes and dispenses different flavors of toothpaste. The idea is that if your toothpaste is minty as you brush in the morning, you'll know it's colder than the day before. If it's cinnamon, you'll know to dress for warmer weather. I call this 'data tasteualization.')

      So the limitation is that biologically we're built to navigate the world in certain ways; a natural extension of that reality is that we find certain things useful/meaningful/valuable and other things less so. Ultimately my hypothesis is "limitation is meaning." Basically in the way rules create meaning. Do you remember Second Life? It was a virtual world circa 2002 or so (still is, actually), where the premise was that you create a digital second self.... and then you can do anything in that world. As you might imagine, the problem is that if you tell people they can do anything...they do nothing. No one knew what to do.

      This is why games are fun, and Second Life was not fun: games come with rules that limit you to doing a certain number of things. And from that limitation comes meaning, and value. Hmmm, in fact, sometimes I think about that button Dad made when we had the button-making machine, it said "no keys, no lock; no rules, no game."

      It's all started with trying to understand decision-making, which lead me to this notion that humans are notoriously and consistently bad at thinking about time. That got me thinking about our capacity for thinking about time as a natural limitation on the way we make decisions. The quintessential example is illustrated by the following:

      1) Which would you rather: $50 now or $300 now? (easy)
      2) Which would your rather: $50 now or $50 in one year? (easy)
      3) Which would you rather: $50 now or $300 in one year (difficult)

      So that limitation got me thinking about what some loosely call "feedback loops." That is the notion that in order to feel like you're impacting the world, you need to intuitively see some kind of feedback from your actions. That's easy enough with turning on a light switch, or putting your hand on a stove (or deciding to take the money now), but not as intuitive when it comes to eating less and losing weight later, or translating the value of reading a book into future wisdom.

      So "intuitive feedback" has become a kind of value to me, because of our limitations in the way we interpret causality. $50 seems like a causal agent when I put it into a bank and get interest 5 years later (money is intuitive because it easily translates into numbers), but it doesn't *seem* like a causal agent when I use that $50 to buy a smart book (even if 5 years later I have an intelligent and meaningful discussion with someone important because of it). 

      Obviously, *seeming* is the critical term here. Lately I'm fond of saying "reality is just reality, and it doesn't really care if you understand it or not." Aldous Huxley said something similar, although somewhat pessimistically toned: "facts don't cease to exist because they are ignored." So because of that I've grown to really like illusions and paradoxes (I consider all paradoxes to be illusions). That's why I put "[in some cases]" in brackets up there in the first paragraph; the interesting thing about studying value is that you find all sorts of seeming paradoxes.

      So an example: why is Katy Perry so popular? Well, because she sings about things everyone can relate to. If "popular" is valuable, it's because there is value in accessibility. But then think about a deeply complex work of art, a literary masterpiece. These things are valuable in the esoteric complexity, their ability to be accessed only by a few. Put more simply: scarcity is value.

      So, scarcity and accessibility are at odds. This is a paradox, but I suspect it's just an illusion. 

      To get a bit more complicated, that thesis is actually just kind of a starting point for thinking about how the universe has solved complex problems. Something like "how nature, humans, and technology have been working over time to solve different kinds of the world's complex problems - almost in a passing of the torch sort of way, like relay racers." It's pretty rough thinking right now, but I think about how we only have to solve problems like cancer, because evolution already took care of the simpler problems like basic diseases. Kevin Kelly (co-founder of Wired) recently wrote "What Technology Wants," and has been talking about he doesn't worry about what some might call "the rise of technology" because maybe the world needs other kinds of minds, maybe kind of like how different kinds of human cultures enrich the world. 

      The notion seems somewhat lofty on its face, sure, but then I think about things like the Eureka Machine. It was first most known for being able to watch a swinging pendulum, and from studying the movement mathematically, it was able to determine the fundamental laws of classical Newtonian physics.

      They then put it in front of one of our mathematically toughest current challenges: the double pendulum problem. That is, attach a pendulum to another pendulum, and the motion that results is - for all human purposes - chaos. There was a point where the Eureka Machine was studying the double pendulum problem and defined it mathematically. I don't think any human had done the same to that point. Although I might have that confused with another example, one concerning cell biology. As you know, cell biology is *astronomically* complex. We're talking sub-atomic complexity, the preciseness of which determines exactly how cells and cell parts function. The Eureka Machine had at some point predicted the behavior of cell development or replication or something to that effect, to such a degree that the researchers observing it ran into a critical problem: they knew the end formula, but they themselves couldn't explain the formula. Thus they couldn't publish it; it'd be like writing a dissertation and when asked to show your data responding with "it was magic."

      Last I remember, I think the researchers are still struggling with that problem. And it makes me think: someday a problem much more complicated than cancer is going to present itself to the world, and it seems plausible that our natural limitations inhibit us from solving them as humans. That's not such a bad thing; after all, even the force of evolution is limited as well, primarily by time. But if you take a step back and think of evolution as just one part of reality, and humans as just another (that evolution created), then it's not such a "scary" prospect to think of technology as just yet another part of reality (that humans created). It might be that this problem is in fact the *result* of human limitation/biases/shortsightedness - climate change and the upcoming challenge of food production come to mind, but I'm sure reality can think of many other things that I can't. 

      Long story short, I'm thinking of putting this all into a book at some point as it brews in my head. I expect to do lots of research on this that will sometimes validate but more often challenge my thinking, and I expect the results to point me in an entirely new direction. I'm collecting all the cognitive pieces at http://www.howtobreakanything.com. Or maybe I'll nurture some relationships at Columbia while I'm here and maybe do a nice formal thesis/dissertation or something. I don't know, I'll figure it out as I go along - I'm not very good at thinking about time ;)

       

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      2 May 2010

      "The End Of Science Fiction," from Anatomy Of Wonder

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      26 Apr 2010

      Why I value qualitative analysis

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      The biggest culprit [contributing to rising costs of higher education] is the lack of objective, publicly available information about how well colleges teach and how much college students learn. Nobody knows which colleges really do the best job of taking the students they enroll and helping them learn over the course of four years. After decades of inaction, some recent efforts have been undertaken to collect that information: It now exists, but colleges and their powerful (and virtually unknown) lobbies will not permit the public to see it.
      via ideas.blogs.nytimes.com

      The above from today's Idea Of The Day article. It had me thinking a bit longer than usual, and it just occurred to me why: it has just illuminated to me why I've always leaned more towards qualitative analysis than quantitative.

      The problem I have with metrics is that they have to be interpreted. This is usually done poorly, on some third-grade level like "more impressions/eyeballs=successful message. Quantitative!"

      The above suggests that there is a set of data that can be used to determine - objectively - "how much students learn."

      As you might imagine, the methods by which those metrics are determined and valued are entirely subjective. This is not to say that they can't be good, it is more to say that they have to be selected carefully.

      What it means to "successfully learn something that will be valuable" is just a nebulous question as what it means to "successfully deliver a message." Determining what metrics will best measure those things is a qualitative processes.

      In other words: on some fundamental level, it's all qualitative.

      (Quant vs qual is obviously quite a complex subject so I'd imagine someone out there disagrees or has another perspective on this. Perhaps it's you? )

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      16 Feb 2010

      "Why can't you just *tell* someone about the meaning of something (presumably important)?"

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      GS: Why can't you just tell people what the meaning of, say, polluting is?

      GN: You can. It's called propaganda.

      GS: Why shouldn't we use propaganda then? Why do you have to let people discover the meaning of such things for themselves?

      GN: The discovery of radical alternatives happens in smaller steps and in individual minds and hearts. For example, I love baking and I used to do a lot of it in my big old gas oven. Then I put a sensor in my kitchen and learned that a lot of CO2 gets produced. Even after I turn the oven off, hours afterward, CO2 was still sitting in my kitchen to a tune of 2,000 parts per million. The cookies were long gone and I was still sitting in a soup of gas. Once I became aware of that, my wife and I got  a convection oven instead, and now we bake with that. I bake less and the oven is a little smaller, but I don't have a CO2 lake in my kitchen anymore. It became actionable to do less because of harm reduction, essentially.

      via citris-uc.org

      Greg Niemeyer is an artist and game programmer working with interactive art at UC Berkeley. He integrates game mechanics and behavioral economics into projects that get people to change their behavior. I love the above quote from his interview with CITRUS, referencing one of his latest sensor projects that allows people to easily monitor their own air quality.

      We try to force meaning onto people all the time. It's not just called propaganda. It's also called advertising.

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      Kyle Cameron Studstill
    • Obox Design
  • How To Break Anything

    Hello friends and collaborators. I deal in innovation, working to build fantastic experiences enabled by the digital world. As part of this I track cultural change, primarily through observations guided by models and filters calibrated over years to sort out the cream.

    These pieces of thoughts here reflect concepts that are elements of those models: ecosystem thinking, long-term value, information filters, and pattern recognition.

    ("How to break anything" is an abstract notion that reflects my background in observation and analysis. Rules are meant to be broken, but only through understanding the rules - observing them with an empathetic eye - can they be broken constructively.

    So how to break anything? Observe everything.

    [You can't observe everything so how do you know what to observe? That's another project that I call Filter Theory - see the About link above.])

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